options market

Bitcoin

2026-10-02 11:36:13

QCP says Bitcoin rally is being driven by spot demand, but market structure remains fragile

QCP Capital said Bitcoin has broken out of its week-long $82,500-$85,700 range, briefly reaching $86,913, the highest level since Sept. 23, before trading near $85,900. The firm said the move has been led mainly by spot buying rather than leverage, pointing to a 5.4% annualized perpetual funding rate during the rally. QCP also argued that Bitcoin has risen even as traditional macro signals turned less supportive, with the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield climbing to 5.62%, the 10-year yield touching 5.29%, and gold posting its worst month of the year in September. According to the firm, the advance looks more like a concentrated flow trade supported by institutional inflows, regulatory catalysts and improving technicals. It cited roughly $3.5 billion and $2.6 billion in net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in August and September, while warning that long-term policy clarity is still limited. QCP added that upcoming U.S. jobs data, Treasury supply and a heavy policy calendar in the coming weeks could still trigger volatility.

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Bitcoin

2026-10-02 11:38:08

QCP says BTC breaks out of week-long range as spot demand, not leverage, drives the move

Bitcoin has broken above its week-long $82,500-$85,700 range, with intraday trading reaching $86,913 and spot prices hovering near $85,900, according to QCP Capital. The firm said the move marked BTC’s highest level since Sept. 23 and left the asset up 14.6% from its Sept. 15 low of $74,968. QCP argued the rally has been driven mainly by spot buying rather than leverage, noting that annualized perpetual funding rates were only 5.4% during the advance. The firm also pointed to a divergence between Bitcoin and traditional macro signals. In September, the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5.62%, the 10-year yield touched 5.29%, and gold posted its worst month of the year. Even so, BTC continued to climb. QCP linked the move to concentrated flows tied to institutional demand, regulatory catalysts and improving technicals, rather than a simple currency debasement trade. It cited roughly $3.5 billion and $2.6 billion in net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in August and September, while warning that longer-term policy certainty remains limited despite the SEC’s Sept. 17 innovation exemption policy.

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US Treasuries

2026-09-30 06:30:00

Crowded Treasury Shorts Leave Market Exposed to a Sharp Covering Rally on Weak Data

Short positioning in U.S. Treasury futures has continued to build, leaving the market vulnerable to a violent reversal if incoming data show the economy is cooling or if Federal Reserve officials strike a dovish tone. Citing data from CME, CFTC and Bloomberg, the original report said 5-year and 10-year Treasury futures open interest has climbed sharply over roughly the past two weeks, while asset managers added more than 100,000 new short contracts in 10-year Treasury futures in the week ended Sept. 22, one of the biggest weekly increases since 2023. Bank of America strategists led by Meghan Swiber said futures positioning still leans toward higher yields and that short positions in short- and intermediate-dated maturities remain profitable. At the same time, options markets are showing signs of hedging demand. Bloomberg data showed put premiums on long-bond futures rose to the highest level since August over the past week, indicating traders are paying up for protection against another move higher in yields. This week, traders are focused on the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge due Wednesday and the monthly jobs report later in the week. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect September nonfarm payrolls growth of about 90,000, down from an unexpectedly strong 162,000 in August.

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Bitcoin

2026-09-29 11:36:51

Bitcoin gains more than 40% this quarter as chart breakout points to $100,000

Bitcoin has risen more than 40% this quarter, outperforming major assets including gold and the S&P 500, according to a CoinDesk-cited market analysis carried by Odaily. The move came as gold fell nearly 4% on Monday, pressured by long-dated U.S. Treasury yields climbing to their highest level since 2007 and a stronger U.S. dollar index. During the same stretch, BTC briefly dropped to about $82,500 before rebounding to around $84,000, leaving it down roughly 1% on the day. Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, said Bitcoin’s break above $80,000 has triggered a double-bottom breakout pattern. He said that if BTC confirms a move above a key resistance level near $82,800, the technical target could extend to $100,000. Timmer also cautioned that chart patterns do not guarantee further upside and that a failed breakout could lead to a sharp pullback. Options positioning on Deribit also points to bullish expectations. Open interest in BTC call options stands at about $2.45 billion at the $90,000 strike, $2.33 billion at $95,000, and $1.79 billion at $100,000.

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Bitcoin

2026-09-28 11:35:46

Bitcoin Bullish Sentiment Cools, but Options Market Has Yet to Show Panic Hedging

Bullish sentiment in the crypto market has softened as major assets including Bitcoin and Ethereum remain under pressure, but the options market is not yet showing clear signs of panic hedging. According to the data cited in the report, Bitcoin’s 7-day skew fell to -0.45 volatility points. That suggests put options have become relatively more expensive than calls, yet the move remains far below the roughly -4.41 level seen as typical over the past year. In other words, put pricing is still relatively low by recent historical standards. 10x Research said demand for put options has picked up lately, though it is still too early to determine whether that reflects short-term hedging activity or the start of a new market phase. The report was cited by CoinDesk and carried by Odaily.

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bond market

2026-09-26 05:57:30

Bond volatility jumps to 104 while Bitcoin options stay near yearly lows

Global bond traders are paying up for protection against sharper rate swings, but Bitcoin options traders have yet to follow. The ICE BofA MOVE Index, a gauge of expected U.S. Treasury volatility, climbed to 104.58 from 78.56 on Sept. 22, a roughly 33% jump in two trading days and its highest reading since March. Over the same stretch, Volmex’s 30-day Bitcoin implied volatility index, BVIV, stayed around 37, not far from its yearly low near 35. The divergence has become more visible in cross-market data. Over the past 20 trading days, the correlation between MOVE and BVIV fell to about -0.37, suggesting that rising stress in rates has not translated into higher implied volatility in Bitcoin options. MOVE’s correlation with the equity VIX also slipped to about -0.06, the first mildly negative reading since April 2024. U.S. Treasury yields moved higher as well. According to U.S. Treasury data, the 10-year yield rose from 4.96% on Sept. 22 to 5.18% on Sept. 24, while the 30-year yield increased from 5.29% to 5.47%. Bitcoin, by contrast, was still trading near $84,000 as of Sept. 26, with options pricing showing limited expectations for an extreme move over the next month.

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Bitcoin

2026-09-21 15:19:44

Glassnode says BTC bullish leverage is rising, but speculative sentiment remains muted

Glassnode said on Sept. 21 that bullish leverage in the Bitcoin options market has been climbing as BTC moved above $86,000. The firm noted that the put-to-call ratio in open interest is also rising, though it remains well below the overheated levels typically seen near Bitcoin market tops. In the perpetual futures market, speculative positioning still looks restrained. Funding rates remain below neutral, suggesting sentiment has not yet reached an extreme despite the latest price breakout. The update points to a market where leverage is building, but not at a pace that matches prior peak conditions.

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Goldman Sachs

2026-09-20 01:41:25

Goldman Sachs keeps $5,400 gold target for end-2027, says Fed hikes only slow the climb

Goldman Sachs said in a Sept. 18 precious metals report that it is keeping its end-2027 gold target at $5,400 per ounce, even after the Federal Reserve raised rates and Goldman economists projected another hike in October. The bank’s commodities research team argued that tighter policy may slow gold’s near-term path higher, but does not alter the longer-term bullish structure. Goldman also said gold’s floor is being reinforced by two forces: structural buying from central banks and persistent call-option demand tied to concerns over fiscal sustainability in G10 economies. The report put year-end fair value at $4,650 per ounce, above the current spot level of about $4,350, while warning that dealer hedging in the options market could mechanically amplify upside moves. It also flagged two downside or volatility scenarios: an extremely hawkish Fed path with three additional hikes before year-end, and event-driven positioning around the U.S. midterm elections that could lift prices before the vote and trigger sharp selling once uncertainty clears.

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